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Let's assume Sir Keir Starmer wishes to win the next election. Let's likewise assume he has no desire to be changed as Prime Minister in the next year or so by Wes Streeting or Angela Rayner or anyone else.

He's a politician, after all, and political leaders relish power - Starmer more than most, I would think. I also suggest that he's at least averagely intelligent, and need to be able to weigh up the chances of any policy succeeding.

After the struggles, compromises and humiliations associated with accomplishing high workplace, Starmer has no intent of tossing all of it away. Why, then, does he show every sign of doing so?

On the single concern that may matter most to a majority of voters, he is speeding towards specific catastrophe, while denying himself any possibility of an escape route. I suggest the boats coming throughout the Channel.

Varieties of migrants doing the 21-mile journey are up by 42 per cent on the exact same period last year. An analysis by The Times, utilizing comparable modelling as Border Force, forecasts that 50,000 individuals will cross the Channel in small boats in 2025. That would be a yearly record - and a stonking ordeal for Sir Keir.

Peering into his mind, I reckon there are two main possible descriptions for his behaviour. One is that he is misguiding himself. He really believes numbers will boil down when the steps he has actually taken start to work.

If Starmer still believes that his policies - tossing numerous millions at the French authorities, enhancing intelligence and using improved police powers - will decrease the numbers, that really is the triumph of hope over experience. The other possibility is that he is currently starting poorly to realise that his stratagems won't bear much, if any, fruit. So he and the Government have actually decided to pull the wool over our eyes. A fatal method.

There have been 2 such examples in recent days. Having said in an online post on Monday that he felt 'angry' about the numbers crossing the Channel (how does he think the rest people feel !?) the PM made a slippery claim.

Sir Keir Starmer now has absolutely nothing formidable in his locker, Stephen Glover composes

Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent out home in the 12 months to March, 3 per cent fewer than in the previous year

He boasted that 30,000 people' had actually been removed from the UK by this Government. Sounds excellent. But in fact this figure refers to all kinds of migrants who have no right to be in our nation. Only 2,240 small-boat migrants were sent home in the 12 months to March, 3 percent less than in the previous year.

A lie? Good God no! We should not accuse Labour prime ministers, far less Sir Keir Starmer KCB, PC, KC, MP, of telling intentional fibs. Shall we go for an analytical deception?

The other circumstances of the Government not being completely straight was the Home Office's claim previously this week that there have been more migrants this year due to the fact that of pleasant weather. These are called 'red days', when the sea is calm.

But an analysis by my associate David Barrett in yesterday's Mail reveals that in temperate May in 2015 there were 21 'red days' however just 2,765 arrivals, about 1,000 less than last month. In mild June 2024 there were 20 'red days', though just 3,007 migrants were recorded crossing the Channel.

The most possible description is that last May and June the Government's plan to send illegal migrants to Rwanda had lastly cleared consistent judicial obstruction. Some, at least, were deterred from crossing the Channel for fear of being packed off to the central African nation.

The Rwanda plan was far from best - it was pricey, and liable to legal challenge due to the fact that the country has an authoritarian government - however a minimum of it had some prospect of discouraging migrants. The inbound Labour Government got rid of its only plausible means of curbing the boats.

Helpful for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who in a speech tomorrow will undertake to resurrect a plan noticeably similar to the Rwandan one.

Starmer now has absolutely nothing formidable in his locker. Literally nothing. He can provide additional millions to the French government but it won't make much, if any, distinction. French authorities will still loll around on beaches, thinking about the sand castles they made as children, as they view migrant boats setting off for Dover.

The fact is that the French will never ever strain themselves because every migrant who leaves their shores is one less migrant for them to fret about. It is ignorant to envision that they are ever going to be zealous on our behalf.

STEPHEN GLOVER: Keir Starmer is a soft man who can not comprehend the real wicked Britain is dealing with

Nor will Sir Keir's concept of enhancing intelligence and police be definitive. When it comes to Labour's reported intent to play with Article 8 of the Human Rights Act so as to preclude bogus asylum claims, that is welcome, however even if it becomes law it is not likely to have much result on total numbers.

Are the PM and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper starting to panic as they understand they do not have a single policy most likely to fulfil their guarantee of 'smashing the gangs'? If they aren't desperate, they jolly well should be.

Three weeks ago, Sir Keir was humiliated after he had praised talks over Rwanda-style 'return hubs' only minutes before his Albanian equivalent, standing a couple of feet away, eliminated any cooperation.

Maybe the Government will persuade the Kosovans or the North Macedonians to establish some sort of plan. But if it does, it will take months, if not years, and people will question why Sir Keir cancelled a plan that he is at least partially trying to revive.

I have actually no specific desire to toss Starmer a lifeline but, as I have actually suggested before, there's one possible path out of the hole he has dug for himself - though it would take enormous determination and guts for him to take it.

There are lots of unoccupied British islands off our coast and further afield. Pick among them. Create a camp comparable to those on the Isle of Man that housed alien internees during the War. Build hundreds of huts - instead of setting up less tough tents, as ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe has proposed.

Recruit doctors and authorities to examine claims quicker than takes place at present - and after that return most migrants to where they came from. The cost of establishing such a camp would be a fraction of the ₤ 4.3 billion invested last year on housing migrants and asylum seekers.

Can anyone tell me why not? Few migrants would fancy kicking their heels for months in a camp, nevertheless gentle, so it would be a wonderful deterrent. Cross the Channel, and you will be our guest - on a possibly windy island rather than in a four-star hotel.

Granted, in order to ward off vexatious legal challenges we 'd most likely need to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights, which would be an action too far for our mindful Prime Minister.

But he does not have a better idea. In truth, he hasn't got any concepts at all that are liable to stem the growing numbers of individuals streaming across the English Channel.

Things can just get worse - and as they do Labour will sink ever lower in public esteem. Does Sir Keir Starmer truly wish to be the signatory of his own political death warrant?

RwandaAngela RaynerLabourWes Streeting